Statistical analysis of the relationship between lightning activity and average surface wind speed

Abstract

This paper analyses the yearly variability of data from three synoptic stations. These data are cross-referenced with the lightning data of the area. The resulting linear or polynomial regression models revealed the same description of the relationship between the mean number of lightning flashes and the mean surface wind speed. A correlation of 0.75, 0.89 and 0.90 is significantly established between the data from Kandi, Natitingou and Parakou stations respectively. A coefficient of determination of 0.56; 0.80 and 0.81 is significantly obtained respectively for these stations by linear regression and then 0.56; 0.84 and 0.85 by polynomial regression. The F-test showed that the fits of the two models are equal. However, the coefficient of determination is higher with the polynomial regression. All other things being equal, when the average surface wind speed increases by 1m/s, the average number of lightning bolts increases by 8400 according to Kandi, 12674 according to Natitingou and 8847 according to Parakou. More than 80% of the variability in the average number of lightning flashes is explained by the average surface wind speed.