Seasonal Trends in Solar Radiation Available at the Earth's Surface and Implication of Future Annual Power Outputs Changes on the Photovoltaic Systems with One and Two Tracking Axes

Abstract

This paper presents analyses of solar seasonal future trend and forecast the annual power output changes of one and two tracking axes photovoltaic system. Using as inputs a set of eight data of the recentest climatic models which involve the solar radiations on all sky and temperatures of West-Africa region, the calculations have been made upon the R environment. The seasonal trend of solar irradiation from 2006-2100 has been analyzed and the outputs power changes from now to the mid-21st century have been determined. Photovoltaic power output is estimated to decrease in all the parts of West-Africa. The results show that for trends from 2006-2100 the maximum is of 0.05 Wm-2 year-1 for Gambia and over the period JJA while the changes strongest negative change 0.15 Wm-2 year-1 and corresponds has season DJF with the Cape Verde. Compared with the periods 2006-2100, all the trends the period 2006-2050 and 2051-2100 are more marked. Compared to the period 2006-2051, the results of the seasonal trends of the period 2051-2100 are marked for certain countries and less for others. Cape Verde always presents the trends weakest of 0.55 Wm-2 year-1 for the minimum of season JJA. Concerning future changes of power output, largest decreases trends strongest go from -3% respectively to -8% decade for the systems with axes of traction for the Sierra Leone and the Cote d’Ivoire respectively and from -2 to -8% decade for the systems with two axes of tractions for the Sierra Leone and the Cote d’Ivoire.