Modeling the annual precipitation evolution in the region of Dobrudja

Abstract

In this article we describe the regional evolution of precipitation in Dobrudja, a region situated in the South – East of Romania, using the mean annual precipitation collected from 1965 to 2005, at ten hydro-meteorological stations. Firstly, the statistical analyzes of the ten series have been performed. ANOVA followed by the Tukey and the Scheffé tests reveal possible grouping of homogenous data series. Since Sulina series has a particular behaviour, due to its geographical position, models for the precipitation evolution have been built using all the series or only nine (without Sulina) and comparisons have been done. The modelling techniques used were nonparametrics - local linear smoothing and smoothing splines.