Development of a Method For Estimating Solar and Wind Potential Based On Data Analysis

Abstract

The effective integration of renewable energies into electrical grids requires precise planning of optimal production periods. This study presents a technique for identifying optimal production periods for photovoltaic and wind generators installed at any geographical point. This method is based on meteorological modeling and analysis of historical data. By leveraging past meteorological data, this approach identifies seasonal and daily trends to predict optimal periods of solar and wind energy production. The technique was implemented by applying it to a site located in the territory of Benin. Indeed, irradiation, temperature, and clarity index were identified as parameters influencing photovoltaic production. Wind speed was identified as the main parameter influencing wind production. These influencing parameters were downloaded from the NASA database from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2023. We then developed characterization criteria to assess the potential for exploiting PV and wind generators in a given area and to determine optimal production periods. These optimal production periods depend not only on the potential of the location where they are installed but also on the temporal evolution of the parameters affecting the output power of PV and wind generators. Through this article, with our method, it is therefore possible to characterize any geographical point for its ability to accommodate PV, wind, PV-wind generators, and determine optimal production seasons.