Assessing the Impact of Vaccination on the Dynamics of COVID-19 in Africa: A Mathematical Modeling Study

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AuteurMONTCHO, YVETTE
AuteurNALWANGA, ROBINAH
AuteurAZOKPOTA, PAUSTELLA
AuteurDOUMATE, TELE JONAS
AuteurLOKONON, BRUNO E
AuteurSALAKO, KOLAWOLE VALERE
AuteurWOLKEWITZ, MARTIN
AuteurGLELE KAKAI, ROMIN LUCAS
Date d'ajout2026-06-02T16:06:57Z
Date de disponibilite2026-06-02T16:06:57Z
Date de publication2023
ResumeSeveral effective COVID-19 vaccines are administered to combat the COVID-19 pandemic globally. In most African countries, there is a comparatively limited deployment of vaccination programs. In this work, we develop a mathematical compartmental model to assess the impact of vaccination programs on curtailing the burden of COVID-19 in eight African countries considering SARS-CoV-2 cumulative case data for each country for the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model stratifies the total population into two subgroups based on individual vaccination status. We use the detection and death rates ratios between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals to quantify the vaccine’s effectiveness in reducing new COVID-19 infections and death, respectively. Additionally, we perform a numerical sensitivity analysis to assess the combined impact of vaccination and reduction in the SARS-CoV-2 transmission due to control measures on the control reproduction number (Rc). Our results reveal that on average, at least 60% of the population in each considered African country should be vaccinated to curtail the pandemic (lower the Rc below one). Moreover, lower values of Rc are possible even when there is a low (10%) or moderate (30%) reduction in the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate due to NPIs. Combining vaccination programs with various levels of reduction in the transmission rate due to NPI aids in curtailing the pandemic. Additionally, this study shows that vaccination significantly reduces the severity of the disease and death rates despite low efficacy against COVID-19 infections. The African governments need to design vaccination strategies that increase vaccine uptake, such as an incentive-based approach.
DOI10.3390/vaccines11040857
Autre identifiantBECDB-12511
URIhttps://dspace.uac.bj/handle/123456789/10801
Languefr
Fait partie deMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute/Vaccines
SujetCOVID-19
Sujetvaccination impact
Sujetcompartmental model
Sujetreproduction number
SujetAfrica
TitreAssessing the Impact of Vaccination on the Dynamics of COVID-19 in Africa: A Mathematical Modeling Study
TypeArticle

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