Spatial distribution and impacts of climate change on Milicia excelsa in Benin, West Africa

Abstract

African teak (Milicia excelsa (Welw.) C.C. Berg) is an endangered multi-use species. Understanding the impact of climate change on the distribution of this species may improve the ability to anticipate or recognize its decline or expansion and to take appropriate conservation measures if necessary. Ecological niche modeling was projected in geographical space to study the current and future distribution of M. excelsa in Bénin. MaxEnt was used to estimate the potential geographic distribution of the species under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Miroc 5 summaries and two RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were used as predictor variables for projections of the geographic potential of this species. The performance of the model was assessed by the area under the curve (AUC), true skill statistics (TSS) and partial receiver operating characteristics (Partial ROC). From the results, M. excelsa was more a secondary species in the Guinean climatic zone and part of the Sudanian-Guinean and Sudanian climatic zone. The projections show a signifcant decrease in suitable habitats for the species from the two RCP scenarios. Only a part of the Guinean climatic zone remained suitable and few protected areas will conserve in situ M. excelsa. For the sustainable conservation of M. excelsa, it is essential to strengthen the protection of sacred forests located in the Guinean climatic zone